Bay City Ball

There has already been a lot of fallout at the simple mentioning of Los Gigantes signing veterans Roberts and Aurilia.

In rebuttal to the popular opinion I claim that these signees mark the shift in organizational philosophy that Giants GM Brian Sabean pledged at the end of the summer.

Now you may ask, “How can the signing of 2 aging veteran players change the face of an already old franchise?”

The answer lies in the big picture, the Giants beyond the 2007 season. By signing cheap replacement level players to relatively short term contracts (2 years; Aurilia, 3 years; Roberts) it affords the time and money for the Giants to put more focus into the draft and produce strong postion players who will be ready to take the major league field in a few years time. Not to mention that Roberts is the most underated player on the FA market with a better batting average, OBP. and steal percentage than Juan Pierre. Sure he’s older, injury proned and in need of a platoon partner but his potential contract makes a lot more sense than Pierre’s 5 year $45 million dollar contract. Just because Colletti has flashed more dollars in the market this year doesn’t make him a good GM, anyone who claims so has no idea what they are talking about. Plus, between Roberts and Bonds (if he resigns) Linden will probably see a similar amount of at bats that Finley saw last year.

We all know the Rotation is set and its only going to get stronger, with a little bit of luck in three or four years time the next (and first in a great while) wave of young position players will be ready.

Mark my words, in 4 years the Giants will have a new, young, cheap core of great position players resembling the likes of Wright and Reyes in New York or Sizemore and Victor Martinez in Cleveland right about the same time Chicago and Houston begin to regret the Soriano and Lee contracts.

Plus if Richie comes back to the Giants I can bust out my old bobblehead from the closet…everybody wins.

John Sickels over at the great Minor League Ball has posted his top 20 prospects for the Giants. The list is a fun read for anyone interested in the Giants farm system. A few surprises, I was surprised to see Marcus Sanders get a B rating after a disappointing 2006. Sickels does state that he only gives Sanders a B if his struggles were the result of his shoulder problem. Of course Timmy is #1 and one of the few glimmers of hope in a otherwise underwhelming farm system.

As the Giants creep closer to signing Dave Roberts, Rich Aurilia, Mark Loretta, and possibly Dave Weathers I am already digging a bunker 30 feet beneath the earths surface. It’s not that I hate any of these players but 2007 is indeed going to be ugly. I know this as do most other fans of this team. The upcoming season looks to be full of slap hit singles, old outfielders (again), and nuclear fallout. Keep digging.

Its not anything personal against any of these players but since when did getting younger mean signing a 34 year old to play CF? Baby steps I guess. Signing Loretta before December 1^st, if offered arbitration, will also cost the Giants a draft pick. Which will continue to slow the progress of a farm system that ranks as one of the worst in baseball. If anything has been show by this off season, its that the farm systems of major league teams are going to pay a bigger role than ever. The ability to replace talent from within will prove to be invaluable to teams as free agent spending becomes increasingly stupid. Keep digging.

Brian Sabean has to feel like he is the smelly kid that no one wants to hang out with. He’s offered big money to Soriano, Lee, Pierre, and Matthews Jr. with no success. It’s OK Brian, I wouldn’t want to be stuck with any of these contracts. The signing of Aurilia or Loretta makes it almost certain that Pedro Feliz is done in San Francisco which makes me muy feliz. I will always remember you Pedro for waving weekly at that low and away breaking ball. Godspeed my sweet prince.

Now that I’ve painted my Fallout-esque radiated future of destruction I will leave you with this. What would you do if you were Brian Sabean? This off season strikes me as one of duality. On one hand options exists to improve your team but on the other hand these options may prove to cost more than they are worth, crippling an organization financially to have 4 good years of Alfonso Soriano is maddening. Part of me wants to sign the expensive big names but the other half shakes his fist and mutters curse words at the mere idea. I am torn. But until the first pitch is thrown I’ll be 30 feet underground, encased in thick cement walls, and eating canned goods with Brian. Pass the beans.

The Cubs have signed Alfonso Soriano, who is considered the most desirable free agent on the market, to a 8 year 136 million dollar contract. Here is where I state the obvious. The Cubs just spent a lot of money on Alfonso Soriano. Soriano, who turns 31 before the 2007 season, will become the highest paid Cub in franchise history. He will also have received the 5th highest package deal in MLB history when all is said and done.

The length of this deal is what concerns me most. Soriano is a free swinger without much plate discipline and you have to figure that as he ages and his bat speed starts to slip he’s going to be in trouble. He has averaged 141 K’s per season with 38 walks. True, Soriano did walk the most in his career in 2006, walking 67 times, but of those 67 walks 16 were intentional.

The other frustrating part of this deal is that the Cubs will most likely use Soriano at leadoff because “he likes hitting leadoff”. Crazy Lou also seems to echo this sentiment. He’s quoted as saying

“He likes the leadoff spot and there is none better,” Cubs manager Lou Piniella said in an interview with WGN Radio. He called Soriano “a young man who can get on base and steal some bases and hit the ball for extra base power and hit it for a homer. We are talking about the best leadoff hitter in all of baseball.”

Sorry Lou, Soriano is not the best leadoff hitter in baseball. I know you want to pump up your new players ego but calling Soriano the best leadoff hitter in the game is just ridiculous. Even though he posted a career best .351 OBP he also struck out 160 times in 2006. A leadoff hitter that strikes out 140+ in a season is brutal. I would much rather see the Cubs sign a high OBP guy to leadoff and shuffle Soriano down to the 3-4-5 slot.

Many people are calling this the worst contract ever. Even though this contract is slightly ridiculous I don’t think I can call it the worst contract ever. Have we forgotten these long lost deals?

• December 9th, 2000 - Mike Hampton signs a 8 year 121 million dollar deal to call Colorado his home. The Rockies desperate for pitching overpay for Hampton’s services. Hampton only plays in Colorado for two years until hes moved to the Marlins, and then to the Braves. Career Rockies record? 22-25 with a 5.78 ERA.

• Darren Dreifort signs a 5 year 55 million dollar deal with the Dodgers. This contract is notorious for being dubbed “The Worst Contract in Major League Baseball History”. Dreifort who had a history of arm trouble gets injured in the first year of the deal and undergoes surgery that causes him to miss 1.5 years. He never becomes fully healthy, pitching sporadically before he retires in 2006. End result? He tosses 205.2 innings over 5 years. Thats $267,431.68 per inning. Ouch.

Mikes Baseball Rants has a great article on the worst contracts in baseball history. Not surprising, Mr. Dreifort comes in a number #1. The signing of Soriano really sets the tone now for the remaining FA outfielders and I pity the team that over pays for Carlos Lee.

So far the ‘Hot Stove’ has been rather mild for the Giants. Which isn’t too surprising since Brian Sabean apparently is very stealthy when wheeling and dealing. Kind of like the Predators’ invisibility cloak suit thing that it can turn on and off. Did I just make a Predator reference? I think I did.

In other good news, the Yanks are “Eyeing Shea Hillenbrand” which is music to my ears. One of my biggest fears of the off season is that Sabean will try and bring back Shea for 2-3 years. Sometimes at night I wake up with a cold sweat after envisioning Shea hitting into a double play. Watching him hit so high up in the order last year was discomforting to say the least. He’s a 7-9th hitter at best and I am sure the Giants would stick him somewhere in the 3-5 range.

In the aforementioned article, the best part is this gem.

Shea Hillenbrand’s rickety reputation isn’t scaring the Yankees away in their search for a right-handed hitting first baseman.

Good for us that they aren’t scared away by his offense. I still can’t believe how many people think that Hillenbrand is a good hitter. Hitting for an empty .300 average will do that I guess.

This off season is a particularly weird one. There are options out in the market that would definitely improve the Giants but they all come with mile long strings attached. Would Carlos Lee be a nice pickup? Sure. But inking him to a 5 year deal really scares me. And for me that is the biggest hurdle to get over this off season. Players like Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano might be productive for 50-60% of their contract at best. The 5th year of a Carlos Lee deal after he’s gained 30 pounds and has the mobility of a rock, looks to be positively frightening.

And if that doesn’t bother you enough the word is that the Giants have offered a 3/30 contract to Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr.. The first to accept gets the contract and the CF job. Juan Pierre making 10 million dollars a year is pure insanity. He may be the most overrated player in Major League Baseball. He’s a leadoff hitter that doesn’t take walks, has an arm that makes Johnny Damon’s arm look like Willie Mays, and was the leading out maker in the National League last year. Let me repeat, he made more outs than anyone else in the NL. Hitting is simple in baseball, don’t make outs and Pierre made more outs than anyone else. He is an 8 or 9th place hitter miscast as a lead off hitter. But he sure is fast!

Gary Matthews Jr. is even more risky. At least with Pierre you can somewhat guess what he’s going to give you but Matthews Jr. is a total mystery. He was basically a journeyman who had a career year at age 31 and you want to sign him for 3/30? Are you kidding me? Someone should enroll Brian Sabean into a stats class. The first thing they should teach him is to get rid of outliers (Why Hello 2006 Gary Matthews Jr.) when doing analysis. It reminds me of Sesame Street which one of these things doesn’t belong? Gary Matthews Jr. has also been claimed off of waivers three times in his career! And just to stick the knife in a little further, his number #1 similar player through age 31 is…drum roll please…Michael Tucker. Someone get me off this ride.

The AFL is drawing to a close and so, though it is not as timely as it would have been a few weeks ago I have decided to write the first in what I hope to be many posts of my delusional and ever increasing man-love for one, Kevin Frandsen.

Totally Frandsonian:

• Frandsen has been nominated by his Scottsdale manager for the 3rd annual Dernell Stenson Award, given to the player that best exemplifies work ethic and team leadership
• Frandsen currently leads the AFL in BA (.421) and OBP (.511). He is third in SLG (.632) and second in OPS (1.143)
• Won Hitter of the Week honors: .571 (12-21), 4 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SB
• Has walked nearly three times more than he’s struck out 11-4.

What Irks me is that Mumbles has performed at every level and yet has achieved nearly zero acknowledgment from any baseball professional in regards to his excellence. If his performance doesn’t open Sabean’s eyes to his future as the Giants everyday second baseman and vanquish all thought of signing a replacement level player to stop-gap secondbase for 2007 then I will lose all hope as a Giants fan and will be forced to watch my tape of Shawn Estes sliding into second and hurting his ankle over and over again until I die from bleeding out the eyes.

Out of principle and shame he should be named to BA’s top 100 prospects for ‘07, if not BA should be discredited as a journal of fact and championed as a publication that gives insight into fantasy and fiction, written by a collection of baseball snobs, too proud and too blind to see the glaring truth; that Kevin “Mumbles” Frandsen will be a very good (and maybe an all-star) second baseman for the Giants for years to come.

So, I was sitting in my corner, mumbling something semi incoherant about Soriano and Home/Away splits when a rather radical idea crossed my mind about the Giants and their new found and much heralded off season cache of doh-re-me, aka moolah.

HOW ABOUT NOT SPENDING IT!

This year is set to be a free agent nightmare as exemplified by Mark Derosa cashing in on a 3 year 6 mil per. deal with the ill run cubbies. Soriano will likely cost a billion dollars, Sabean’s left arm and a ham sandwich and the Red Sox just payed (potentially) 51 million dollars for the rights of negotion with Matsuzaka. It is increasingly evident that the Giants woes can only be solved through careful trade, investment in foreign scouting and signing and good draft picks.

In my humble opinion the Giants should follow suit in what the Yankees did this last draft and pay above slot money for later round picks. I would rather have the Giants pay 2 million on a potential phenom than 20 mil a year on an overpriced (though talented) major leaguer.

I have no problem with the Giants pursueing potential bargain players, some of the Japanese players not named Matsuzaka, maybe Wolf or Meche or Dave Roberts but names like Mathews Jr., Soriano, Zito, Pierre should not garner more than a passing thought from Sabean.

Hell, the money would be better put to use in a regular ol’ savings account. Sabean, I implore you; take the money to the bank (preferably in those cool tan moneybags with the big green dollar sign I always see in bank heist flicks), put it in a savings account and let it sit until next off season when the money might be put to better use. And you know what? Even if you go on a spending spree next winter, you might just have a little left over because of the interest.

Anyway, now that my rant has concluded I will now return to my corner, next time I will unviel the MLB executive I blame for the return of players earning ridiculous A-Rod money, thank you.

A few rumors floating around recently that the White Sox would like to acquire Omar Vizquel for Juan Uribe and probably a pitching prospect. Uribe has had some off season trouble being involved in a shooting. The White Sox heavily pursued Omar before he signed with the Giants during the 2004-2005 off season. The Sox are believed to have offered Omar 2 years at 10 million but the Giants came in and gave him the 3rd year that he wanted. Brian Sabean has recently stated that he would think about extending Omar’s contract for another year or two. I love Omar as much as the next guy but I don’t know if extending a 40 year old shortstop, who is still amazing, is really that great of an idea and at the same time I don’t think trading him away is either. Lets look over a couple of numbers.

Juan Uribe is a slick fielding shortstop with some pop, hitting 21 homers in ‘06, but has abysmal on base skills. Last year he took less walks than Pedro Feliz. Try and wrap your head around that. No, seriously, try it. I didn’t think any human being on this planet could walk less than Pedro but Jaun Uribe did. Walking just 13 times in 463 at bats. That’s a walk to at bat ratio of 1:37 which makes Pedro Feliz look like Barry Bonds (Feliz had a 1:18 ratio for those that are interested). Heres quick stat line on how Omar and Juan did offensively

Omar Vizquel - .295/.361/.389 with a OPS+ of 93
Juan Uribe - .235/.257/.441 with a OPS+ of 74

If I had to chose between the two based on offense, I would take Vizquel. Even though Uribe slugs at a higher percentage his inability to draw walks or get on base consistently really hurts his stock. Comparing VORP for Omar and Juan further stresses this point. Omar’s VORP in ‘06 was 28 and Uribe’s was -0.6, ouch. But offense isn’t all there is to baseball, we also need to take into account defense. Defensively Uribe is a fine choice to play shortstop. Lets run down some quick defensive stats for both of our shortstops

Omar Vizquel - FPCT .993 | RF 4.18 | ZR .864
Juan Uribe - FPCT .977 | RF 4.70 | ZR .868

Omar comes out on top in fielding percentage but Uribe has a better range factor score. The zone rating for both comes out to a draw. Even though Omar is approaching 40 he is still a very respectable short stop. Uribe also is no slouch defensively. Overall, I still have to take Omar over Juan. Defensively, they are a draw but offensively I have to go with Omar. Uribe is an absolute black hole when it comes to getting on base and if he could raise his OBP to around his 2004 levels (.327) then he is a much more valuable player than Omar but I have my doubts if Uribe can ever do that. I would rather the Giants hang on to Omar for 2007 and look at the 2008 free agent market for a shortstop replacement. Guys like Michael Young and Carlos Guillen will be free agents in ‘08 and would fit nicely as the next Giants shortstop

Quick Hits

• Award time! Hanely Ramirez and Justin Verlander win the NL and AL ROY awards respectively. I was pulling for Ryan Zimmerman to win the NL but Ramirez is also a good choice. The Red Sox have to be grimacing over Hanely right now. Verlander was pretty much a lock to win the AL.

• Padres aren’t opposed to moving Brian Giles. I personally can’t see it happening. Giles isn’t the 30 home run threat he used to be but has been one of the few sources of offense on a weak hitting Padres squad. I think they’ll hang on to Giles which also doesn’t hurt their chances of acquiring Marcus Giles to play second.

A few quick items of note from around Baseball news today

Could the Red Sox have posted the top bid for highly coveted Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka? Buster Olney reports that the Red Sox may have won the top bid with a bid from 38MM-45MM. You read that right, 35 to 48 million! That is a gigantic sum of money to pay a guy thats never thrown one inning in North America. Keep in mind that 38-45 million only buys the Red Sox the opportunity to negotiate with Matsuzaka. The Matsuzaka sweepstakes just keep getting stranger and stranger.

J.D. Drew opts out of the remaining three years on his Dodger contract to test the free agent market. Drew had three years left at a total of 33 million. Word is that Drew was unhappy in LA but with Boras as his agent I have the feeling that its more about money than anything else. Drew enters a free agent market with already some big bats in the outfield (Lee, Soriano, Sheffield) and I wonder if he’s going to do better than 11 mil per year? I can see someone like the Mets overpaying for Drew.

Keith Foulke also opted for free agency, declining the 3.75 million option to stay with Boston. Would the Giants have any interest in bringing back Foulke if Benitez gets moved? I hope not, Foulke isn’t going to come cheap and he is a injury concern. You can’t completely rule it out since Foulke wants to play closer to his Arizona home which puts him in the area for west coast teams.

The offseason is like that Hispanic soap opera that you’ll sometimes find yourself watching around lunch. You can’t understand half the stuff thats happening but its still grossly entertaining. It’s also the perfect time for half-brained crazy trade scenarios that everyone loves to cook up. Albert Pujols and Adam Wainwright for Brad Hennessey and a box of dreams? Sure thing! You’ve got a deal Walt, I’ll send the paperwork over in the morning. The smallest change in one team’s roster opens up a thousand different possibilities for other teams looking to add players. Which brings me to todays post.

Houston is very close to re-signing Aubrey Huff to a 3 year deal with a option for the fourth. Huff was brought in at the trading deadline in 2006 to pick up at bats from a struggling Morgan Ensberg. Ensberg had a breakout year in 2005 but struggled to find a groove in 2006, putting up a final line of .235/.396/.464. The Astros seem to be tired of his inconsistency and now that Huff is close to re-signing, Ensberg’s likeliness of getting dealt just shot through the roof. If Ensberg can be had for a couple of minor prospects I think he would be a good sign. He constantly puts up a good OBP and has had flashes of brilliance. He is solid defensively and would play a nice third base in San Francisco. The drawbacks are that he’s a streaky hitter and that since he is 31, this is as good as hes going to get. He also slugs about a 100 points higher at the hitter friendly Minute Maid Park than on the road.

Would the Giants and Astros be suitable trade partners? Maybe. It’s believed that the Astros are looking for starting pitching. The Giants do have some interesting starting pitching prospects but nothing thats solid and major league ready. Nick Pereira had a nice run in A ball and was aggressively promoted by the Giants to AAA but hit a speed bump struggling to find his stuff in Fresno. Does anyone actually desire a Brad Hennessey? The pitching prospects that other teams will most likely inquire about should be untouchable. I would trade anyone not named Lincecum, Sanchez, or Sadler. But the writing is on the wall for Ensberg in Houston and I believe that hes on his way out. If the Giants could find a suitable trade package to send, maybe something like Brad Hennessey + Brian Anderson + other mid-level prospect, a deal could be made.